Why dosen't Pakistan get it?

We are currently seeing an arms race of sorts in our part of the world, the main participants being China, India and Pakistan. The three countries have scaled up their military spending albeit in their respective capacities. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute the military spending in 2008 of these three nations was as follows ; China’s defence expenditure was $84.9 billion ( 2.2% of GDP), India’s at $30 billion (2.5% of GDP) while Pakistan’s was ~ $8 billion(3.5% of GDP). The current rates of military spending would undoubtedly be much higher as all these nations are in the process of acquiring and/or manufacturing a great number of modern weaponry.

None the less, in any conventional war, Pakistan is outclassed and outgunned. This is no false bravado by the Indian military. Military generals, analysts on both sides and neutral experts agree on this outcome. The numbers on the side of India are simply overwhelming.

The military strengths of these neighbours assessed in 2009 stands as follows:

Personnel

	PAKISTAN		INDIA
Service	Total Active Duty	Total Reserve	Total Active Duty	Total Reserve
Army**	550,000	528,000	1,414,000	1,800,000
Navy	24,000	5,000	67,000	NA
Air Force	65,000	10,000	170,000	50,000
Paramilitary Forces	302,000	NA	1,300,300	NA
Coast Guard	est. 9,000	NA	19,700	NA
Total	952,000	543,000	2,971,000	1,850,000

** The Indian Territorial Army of 787,000 is not part of the total number.

Military Hardware

	PAKISTAN		INDIA
Hardware	Number	Highlights	Number	Highlights
Tanks (MBT)	2500	Al-Khalid, T-80UD	5000	T-90 Bhishma, T-72 Ajeya
Artillery	~1400	M109 , M198	3200	155mm Bheem, Howitzers
Airplanes	~800	F-16, JF-17	1550	Su-30 MKI , AWACS
Helicopters	~100	AH-1 Cobra, Mi-17	300	Mi-17 , Mi-8
Warships	~80	No Aircraft Carrier	169	1 Aircraft Carrier

~ Disputed /Unverified information, info obtained from Wikipedia, other published sources.

Note – The numbers include attack elements + support elements

As a direct result of this asymmetry of conventional armed forces, Pakistan chooses to wage a proxy war in India. All the proofs and deliberations about state actors and non – state actors aside, the real question is WHY?!

The past couple of decades, it seems that the very reason for Pakistan’s existence is to wage aggression against India. This idea, of India as the ENEMY is the strong pillar which reinforces the shaky foundation of the country. Why does Pakistan think that India is out to get it? India has never acted in unprovoked aggression towards its neighbour. India does not need the land of Pakistan, does not need its resources nor its industrial base, whatever that may be. This act of ‘cry wolf’ tends to bring together the myriad forces at play in the Pakistani sphere, not to mention bolstering the importance of the military. Hundreds of articles have been written about the Pakistani army and its need to constantly prove its importance and relevance in Pakistan’s hierarchy.

The real problem here is that the Pakistani leadership has manoeuvred itself and their country on to a path of self destruction. The nation cannot feed itself on hatred, military hardware does not really improve the living standard of the population. Monetary aid from the United States, World Bank and the Arabic countries are never permanent and at best helps Pakistan limp along. As conditions worsen, the Army will be left with no option but to wage war against India. A conventional war with India is one that Pakistan can never win.

In order to survive and flourish, Pakistan has to perform a complete about turn and distance itself from its past. For starters, absolute power should be vested with the civilian leadership alone. They are the true representatives of the people. General Ashfaq Kayani’s directive to withdraw all military personnel from civilian offices and posts is a step in the right direction. Further, the ISI needs to be reigned in and support of various unscrupulous organisations needs to be withdrawn. India is patient, but does not have infinite patience. If another incident such as the Mumbai attack or Parliament attack takes place, there will be war. Other nations have gone to war on the basis of far lesser grievances.

And if Pakistan thinks its nuclear arms are deterrent enough, they are mistaken. More on this in the next entry.